Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s State of the Strait Weekly Digest. Read more about this new project here.
Each week ASPI's China team tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, interference and espionage, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and lawfare.
Governments and organisations can contact ctspartnerships@aspi.org.au to discuss co-funding this project and gaining access to the entire State of the Strait database.
Analysis and commentary from the team is in ‘block quotes’ (the blue margins on the left). Please feel free to cite this newsletter as: State of the Strait #18, ASPI, 15 July 2025.
This edition covers the period: 8 July 2025 to 15 July 2025.
The United States is intensifying efforts to secure concrete commitments from allies such as Japan and Australia in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. According to recent reporting in the Financial Times, senior U.S. defence officials are pressing counterparts in allied capitals to clarify what military roles they would be willing to play in a Taiwan contingency—marking a significant shift away from the long-held policy of “strategic ambiguity”.
At the forefront of this push is Elbridge Colby, Under-Secretary of Defence for Policy. His message is clear: the United States is determined to show Beijing that it would not be standing alone in any future conflict over Taiwan. Washington is urging its allies not only to increase defence spending, but also to engage in joint planning and interoperability exercises that would make an allied response to a Taiwan crisis more credible.
However, U.S. allies are proceeding with caution. Japan, while significantly bolstering its defence posture and expanding its missile capabilities, has avoided making any explicit commitments—pointing to constitutional limits on the use of force. Australia has also resisted pressure to pre-commit. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, currently visiting China, sidestepped questions about Australia’s potential role in a U.S.–China conflict over Taiwan, instead emphasising that his government’s priority is to advance “peace and security in our region.” Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy emphasised that any decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict “will be made by the government of the day”, dismissing any suggestion that Canberra would automatically follow Washington into conflict.
Despite this, both Japan and Australia have deepened military cooperation with the U.S. and with each other. Large-scale military exercises like ‘Talisman Sabre’ (13 July to 4 August 2025) and ‘Southern Jackaroo’ (25 May to 13 June 2025) signal growing preparedness, even as public declarations of intent remain cautious.
Allies’ reluctance to pre-commit reflects legitimate concerns about legal constraints, domestic politics, economic fallout, and the risks of escalation. Maintaining strategic flexibility allows governments to assess events as they unfold, rather than being locked into conflict before it begins—a stance that balances deterrence with diplomacy.
On the horizon:
9-18 July: Taiwan's ‘Han Kuang 41’ Military Exercises
What’s happened so far:
9 July: The first day focused on grey-zone threats like drone incursions and electronic attacks. China responded with 31 aircraft and 7 naval vessels, prompting a full military alert.
10 July: Simulations targeted Taiwan’s command and communications systems. The drills included jamming, drone strikes, and leadership decapitation scenarios, with civil–military coordination tested in the north.
11 July: Reservists trained in urban combat and casualty evacuation in Taoyuan. Civil defence drills were staged in public spaces, including supermarkets and transit hubs.
12 July: U.S.-made HIMARS rocket systems were publicly deployed for the first time, enhancing Taiwan’s long-range strike capabilities. Live-fire drills were held alongside Thunderbolt-2000 launchers.
13 July: Naval forces conducted counter-blockade manoeuvres to simulate responses to a potential Chinese encirclement of the island. Sky Sword II surface-to-air missiles and drones were deployed in field conditions to test Taiwan’s integrated air defence and real-time surveillance capabilities. On the outlying island of Penghu, troops rehearsed defending against an enemy airborne assault targeting key military infrastructure at the airport.
14 July: A focus on riverine and maritime defence. Army engineers conducted a live explosive river-blocking drill in the Tamsui River to simulate stopping an amphibious assault. Naval forces continued counter-blockade operations off the northern coast, while integrated air defence systems and drones remained active in field exercises.
23 August: Referendum on decommissioning the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant
Taiwan's Central Election Commission will run a national referendum on the question of whether the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant should resume operations, provided it is deemed safe by the relevant authorities.
By the numbers: This week’s incidents of coercion
Below are the incidents of coercion for the period: 8 July 2025 to 15 July 2025.
Military & paramilitary coercion
PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities
China mapping seabeds near Taiwan Taipei Times China’s oceanographic survey and research ships are collecting data in the Indo-Pacific region — possibly to aid submarine navigation, detect or map undersea cables, and lay naval mines — activities that could have military applications in a conflict with Taiwan or the US, a New York Times report said … Last year, six research ships made 25 passes in parallel lines through the waters off Taiwan’s east coast, the article said. Chinese ships frequently navigated close to Taiwan’s 12 nautical mile (22km) territorial sea boundary, but never crossed it, meaning Taipei could do little to object, it added.
Four Chinese coast guard vessels intruded into Kinmen waters for two consecutive days; Taiwan’s Coast Guard conducted parallel sailing to drive them away [4中國海警船連2日侵擾金門水域 海巡併航驅離] Central News Agency Following the incursion by four Chinese coast guard vessels into Kinmen waters yesterday afternoon, the same four ships again entered the restricted waters off Kinmen this afternoon. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) Jinma-Peng branch reported that recently, Chinese coast guard ships have begun turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS), operating as "dark ships" to carry out such incursions … The Jinma-Peng branch noted that the Chinese coast guard has shifted from previously keeping their AIS on during incursions to now deliberately turning it off to evade monitoring.
Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).
Economic coercion
Banning Chinese exports to Taiwan
China bans dual-use exports to eight Taiwan defense entities Bloomberg China placed eight Taiwanese suppliers of military equipment on an export control list, a move that’s likely to have a limited impact on the armed forces of the self-run democracy. China’s Ministry of Commerce said 9 June it was banning shipments of dual-use products to entities in Taiwan including Aerospace Industrial Development Corp., GEOSAT Aerospace & Technology Inc. and CSBC Corp., Taiwan. The firms make goods and equipment from the submarine Taiwan is developing to drones and bulletproof vests.
ASPI Comment: China’s decision to impose export controls on eight Taiwanese defence-linked firms came in retaliation for recent moves by Taipei to sever key technological and research links with the mainland. In June, Taiwan added major Chinese chipmakers—including SMIC and Huawei—to its “Chinese Entity List,” restricting exports over national security concerns. Earlier in February, it also banned all academic collaboration with China’s “Seven Sons of National Defence”—a group of military-linked universities central to Beijing’s military-civil fusion strategy. While China framed its export ban as a precision strike against Taiwan’s defence industry, the practical impact is minimal, as Taiwanese firms have already moved away from Chinese components.
Interference & espionage
United front work targeting Taiwan
ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.
ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.
The cross-Strait youth patriotic signature event was held at the Northeast Anti-Japanese United Army Memorial Park [两岸青年爱国主题签名活动在东北抗联纪念园举行] China Taiwan Network On the afternoon of 10 July, a cross-Strait youth patriotic signature event was held at the Northeast Anti-Japanese United Army Memorial Park. Journalists and social media influencers from both sides of the Taiwan Strait participated in the event. In front of a majestic sculpture of an anti-Japanese resistance fighter on horseback, young media professionals from both sides solemnly signed a banner bearing the slogan: “Remembering History, Building Peace Together – A Cross-Strait Media Trip to Heilongjiang to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the Victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.”
The 8th Cross-strait youth development forum opens in Hangzhou [第八届海峡两岸青年发展论坛在杭州开幕] Xinhua The 8th Cross-Strait Youth Development Forum, themed “Passing the Torch Across the Strait, Power of Youth,” opened on the morning of the 11 July in Hangzhou. Over 1,000 guests and young people from both sides of the Taiwan Strait participated in related activities to deepen mutual understanding and promote exchange and cooperation … The longstanding exchanges between Zhejiang and Taiwan—marked by mutual support and shared fortunes—serve as indisputable evidence to the world that compatriots on both sides of the Strait share a common destiny. The complete reunification of the motherland is the trend of the times, a righteous cause, and the aspiration of the people.
Between Qiaoshan and the Ju River, tracing the shared roots of the nation — Over 300 compatriots from both sides of the Taiwan Strait jointly commemorate the Yellow Emperor Xuanyuan [桥山沮水间，同溯民族根脉——300余名两岸同胞共缅轩辕黄帝] China Taiwan Net On the morning of 9 July, the “Tracing Roots to Ancestral Origins” – Cross-Strait Compatriots' Grand Ancestral Worship Ceremony at the Mausoleum of the Yellow Emperor – was held at the Yellow Emperor Mausoleum in Shaanxi. More than 300 representatives from both sides of the Taiwan Strait attended the ceremony to jointly pay homage to the Yellow Emperor Xuanyuan, the legendary founding ancestor of Chinese civilisation … “The one who gave birth to us Yanhuang and educated us Chinese. The compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits share the same roots and origins and are deeply connected. The descendants of Yanhuang share the same sky and are closely connected”.
ASPI Comment: Beijing’s use of the Yellow Emperor as shared ancestral figures is a well-worn United Front strategy designed to cultivate a pan-Chinese identity that erases the political and cultural boundaries between Taiwan and the mainland. By emphasising a common “ancestral bloodline,” the CCP aims to naturalise the idea of unification and delegitimise Taiwan’s distinct nationhood. Yet this narrative finds limited resonance in Taiwan, where growing numbers—particularly among younger generations and Indigenous communities—are turning to the island’s Austronesian roots to assert an identity grounded in local history rather than Han-centric mythology.
Cross-strait ethnic minority exchange event launches in Changsha [海峡两岸少数民族交流活动在长沙启动] Xinhua The 2025 Cross-Strait Ethnic Minority Exchange and the 2nd Cross-Strait Ethnic Minority Music Festival, themed “Harmony Across Mountains and Seas, Encounter in Hunan,” opened on 11 July in Changsha, Hunan Province. More than 500 ethnic minority representatives and youth delegates from both sides of the Taiwan Strait attended the event … In his speech, Cheng Renzong, member of the KMT Central Standing Committee and President of the Taiwan Youth Workers’ Federation, stated: “Compatriots across the Strait share the same roots and origins. Through exchanges in culture, music, and sports, we can jointly preserve and promote the traditional culture of the Chinese nation, thereby strengthening mutual identification and emotional resonance.”
Honouring Hakka heroes, preserving traditional culture — Taoyuan, Taiwan launches Hakka volunteer season [缅怀客家先烈 传承传统文化——台湾桃园启动客家义勇季] Xinhua The 2025 Taoyuan Hakka Volunteer Season was recently launched, marking the first time that the two major Hakka ceremonies—the Yimin Festival and the Yiwei Memorial Rite—have been integrated. The aim is to help more people, especially youth, learn about the heroic deeds of Hakka forebears and engage with and pass on traditional Hakka culture … In Taiwan, Hakka communities are primarily concentrated in Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli. The Yimin Festival is a major annual event for Hakka people, commemorating the Hakka ancestors who gave their lives during the Qing dynasty to defend their homes and maintain justice. Temples dedicated to “Lord Yimin” have been built across Taiwan to honour their sacrifice.
Espionage
Chinese spies threaten Taiwan’s war readiness POLITICO Military experts are sounding the alarm that Beijing has been greatly expanding its espionage campaign to thwart Taiwan’s chances of stopping a forceful Chinese takeover, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned could happen as early as 2027. The number of Taiwanese charged with spying for China has risen from a total of 16 in 2021 to 64 in 2024, per data from the island’s National Security Bureau … “It’s getting worse — spies at the high levels are creating a lot of damage to our national security,” said Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang, who served as Taiwan’s defense minister in 2013.
Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace
Govt rejects Taiwan military drills China Daily A Chinese mainland spokesman said on Wednesday that no matter how many military exercises the Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taiwan conducts, it cannot change the inevitable failure of “Taiwan independence” and cannot stop the historical trend of China's reunification … Chen criticized the DPP administration for persisting in its stance on “Taiwan independence”, inciting cross-Strait confrontation, wasting resources, and promoting a “militarization of the entire populace”. He accused the administration of dragging the Taiwan people onto the “Taiwan independence” bandwagon, escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Ten fallacies in Lai Ching-te’s so-called “unity” heresy [署名文章：赖清德所谓“团结”邪说中的十处谬误] Xinhua Lai Ching-te, under the guise of “unity”, once again advocated the separatist fallacy of “Taiwan independence”, inciting hostile confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and further tearing apart Taiwanese society. His speech was full of confusion, logical confusion, and specious arguments, which were difficult to make sense, causing more disgust among the Taiwanese people. Lai Ching-te's speech was full of mistakes and omissions just like his first speech.
Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China
Taiwan's KMT defends 'One China' stance as no-confidence votes approach Nikkei Asia Taiwan's main opposition, the Kuomintang, on 9 July reaffirmed its support for the “One China” position and pledged to push back against swelling discontent with the party's drive for closer relations with Beijing … When asked by reporters whether the KMT would reconsider its China policy in light of the recall campaign, Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia said the party would stand by its core position that Taiwan is part of a broader Chinese polity.
ASPI Comment: Across two recall election days—26 July and 23 August—the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) needs to flip just 6 of 26 contested KMT seats to regain a majority in the Legislative Yuan.
Cyber warfare
No incidents to report this week.
Diplomatic coercion
Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle
Japan's 7-Eleven apologizes for 'China, Taiwan' label Taiwan News Japan's 7-Eleven official X account posted a photo of store employees' uniforms from different countries on Friday, erroneously labeling a uniform as “China, Taiwan” … Uniforms worn in Hong Kong were listed as “China (Hong Kong),” and similarly, those worn in Taiwan were listed as “China (Taiwan).” As soon as this post was released, it immediately triggered protests and criticism … The company added that it will reflect on this incident and be even more considerate in its future posts.
Testing Taiwan’s security partners
China firmly opposes military ties between US and Taiwan, says FM on Taiwan drills featuring US rocket system Global Times In response to a media inquiry about the Taiwan region's launch of its “annual military exercise” - which will, for the first time, use the newly delivered US high-tech rocket system, - and remarks by the leader of Taiwan's defense authority stating that the exercise is intended to demonstrate to the mainland that the island's military has the capability and confidence to defend “a free and democratic life,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press conference on 9 June that first of all, Taiwan's so-called “exercise” is not a diplomatic matter.
US seeks clarity from allies on their role in potential conflict on China’s Taiwan island, frustrating allies: reports Global Times According to a Financial Times report, the Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to conflict over China’s Taiwan island, which has frustrated the two American allies … China Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stressed that the Taiwan question is entirely China’s internal affair, and no country is in a position to interfere.
Lawfare
Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”
Hong Kong police arrest four individuals linked to a Taiwan-based group on suspicion of conspiracy to subvert state power Global Times The Hong Kong Police Force's National Security Department has arrested four males aged between 15 and 47 on suspicion of conspiracy to subvert state power. The suspects are allegedly linked to an organization established in the island of Taiwan and are currently under investigation, according to local media reports … The police arrested four individuals on Wednesday on suspicision of conspiracy to subvert state power. Among them are the organization's secretary-general, a council member, and a regular member. Electronic devices seized during searches revealed their activities in Hong Kong, including a proposal seeking US support for Hong Kong political prisoners and flags promoting separatism, [Chief Superintendent Steve Li Kwai-wah of the National Security Department] said.
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The KMT’s proposed amendment to Article 29 of the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area is concerning, as it seeks to internalise cross-Strait issues—potentially shifting the status quo in Beijing’s favour.
The KMT’s proposed amendment to Article 29 of the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area is concerning, as it seeks to internalise cross-Strait issues—potentially shifting the status quo in Beijing’s favour.