Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s State of the Strait Weekly Digest. Read more about this new project here.
Each week ASPI's China team tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, interference and espionage, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and lawfare.
Governments and organisations can contact ctspartnerships@aspi.org.au to discuss co-funding this project and gaining access to the entire State of the Strait database.
Analysis and commentary from the team is in ‘block quotes’ (the blue margins on the left). Please feel free to cite this newsletter as: State of the Strait #17, ASPI, 8 July 2025.
This edition covers the period: 1 July 2025 to 8 July 2025.
From 9 to 18 July, Taiwan will stage the most extensive Han Kuang military exercises in the annual drill’s 41-year history, simulating a full-scale invasion in a direct response to intensifying pressure from Beijing. This year’s iteration will include scenarios such as naval and air strikes, cyberattacks, legal warfare, and disinformation campaigns.
The 2025 exercises will involve more than 22,000 reservists in unscripted, live-fire exercises lasting ten days and nine nights, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense. These tests are designed to assess the military’s real-time responsiveness, joint-force coordination, and ability to operate under decentralised command structures—critical should Taiwan’s central command nodes be disrupted.
Han Kuang 41 will also see the deployment of advanced weaponry, including the U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket system and domestically produced Sky Sword missiles—further evidence of Taiwan’s shift toward asymmetric defence and precision-strike capabilities. Coordinated civil defence drills will also be held across 11 cities and counties. Air raid sirens, evacuation alerts, and emergency response protocols will be tested in parallel with military operations, part of Taiwan’s whole-of-society resilience strategy.
President Lai Ching-te has framed the current threat environment as a “war without gun smoke,” pointing to ongoing PRC infiltration, political interference, and cognative warfare. The Han Kuang exercses, therefore, aim not only to test Taiwan’s military preparedness but to reinforce societal cohesion and project deterrence to both domestic and international audiences.
While Beijing has not yetformally commented on the upcoming exercises, Chinese state media has previously denounced them as provocative. Since 2022, the PLA has conducted frequent and aggressive exercises simulating blockades of Taiwan, aiming to normalise military pressure and steadily degrade the island’s security environment. Han Kuang 41 reflects Taiwan’s urgent need to strengthen its defences against a widening array of threats—from blockades to cyberattacks—amid what are now near-daily incursions by Chinese aircraft and naval vessels.
On the horizon:
9-18 July: Taiwan's ‘Han Kuang 41’ Military Exercises
Below are the incidents of coercion for the period: 1 July 2025 to 8 July 2025.
Military & paramilitary coercion
PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities
Under China’s threat, Taiwan needs its own power sources more than ever The New York Times A Chinese military magazine, Naval and Merchant Ships, recently zeroed in on one of Taiwan’s biggest vulnerabilities. The island democracy, which China claims is part of its territory and threatens to overtake, imports more than 96 percent of its energy. Most of it — oil, coal and liquefied natural gas — arrives by ship, and most of the oil is from the Middle East. China could debilitate Taiwan by blocking these ships and thereby “win without fighting,” the magazine said.
China opens 3rd extension to sensitive Taiwan Strait flight path Nikkei Asia China's civil aviation authority said on 6 July it has opened a third extension of the M503 flight route, which has for years been the subject of complaints from Taipei due to its position just west of an unofficial dividing line in the Taiwan Strait. China last year moved the M503 route closer to the median line, drawing an angry response from Taipei, which said Beijing was trying to "package" civil aviation for political or military considerations to potentially change the strait's status quo.
ASPI Comment: The newly designated extension, labelled “W121,” connects Dongshan (東山) to the M503 air route, which runs close to the median line of the Taiwan Strait (shown in white). M503 already links flights from Xiamen (廈門) at “W123” and Fuzhou (福州) at “W122”. Blue lines are Taiwan air routes to its outlying islands.
Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities
Defense Ministry confirms Chinese tank landing ship in waters north of Taiwan Focus Taiwan The Ministry of National Defense on 1 July confirmed the presence of a Chinese Type 072A landing ship -- a large tank carrier used for amphibious warfare -- in waters off northern Taiwan. Local media reported that a plane passenger spotted the Chinese amphibious warship shortly before landing at Taipei Songshan Airport on 27 June. According to the reports, the passenger took a photo of the vessel and later identified it as a Chinese Type 072A landing ship after using their coordinates to look it up. The ship was within 60 nautical miles (111 kilometers) of Keelung's coast. The amphibious warfare ships are usually seen in waters off Taiwan's east coast, making Friday's sighting a possible first, former Air Force Institute of Technology officer Lin Yu-feng said.
Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).
Economic coercion
Imposing restrictions on Taiwanese imports
Can Taiwan really disconnect its economy from China? The New York Times Last month, Taiwan’s government told Taiwanese businesses that they would need licenses to sell products to two of China’s most important tech companies: the telecommunications giant Huawei and SMIC, formally the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation. Both are key to China’s drive to make its own chips … Taiwan’s ruling party wants to be seen in Washington as a reliable friend of the United States, “even if that means paying a short-term economic cost,” said Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, a think tank at Stanford University. But Taiwan could pay a high cost for shifting its economy away from China.
ASPI Comment: For more on how China weaponises its economic relationship with Taiwan as part of its campaign of coerion, see ‘Beijing’s economic playbook for Taiwan: big carrots and small sticks’ in The Strategisthere.
Interference & espionage
United front work targeting Taiwan
ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.
ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.
Cross-Strait Youth Summit excludes Taiwanese media: No official explanation given [兩岸青年峰會未開放台媒參加 官方未說明原因] Central News Agency The “2025 Cross-Strait Youth Summit” opened in Beijing on 3 July. Unlike previous years, this year’s event did not allow Taiwanese media to report on-site. No official explanation was given, highlighting the deteriorating overall atmosphere in cross-strait relations … Last year, KMT Vice Chairman Sean Lien led a delegation to the summit. At the time, he told media that the two sides should maintain positive exchanges and avoid hostile gestures, which are not conducive to cross-strait development. In contrast, this year’s summit only allowed mainland and selected Hong Kong media to attend. Taiwanese media were excluded, leaving only “one side” of the Strait present—further underlining the worsening cross-strait climate.
Over 1,800 Taiwan college students gather for cross-Strait exchanges Global Times Over 1,800 Taiwan college students have gathered for a cross-Strait youth exchange summer camp that kicked off on 4 July in Zhuhai, south China's Guangdong Province. Hosted by the All-China Federation of Taiwan Compatriots (ACFTC), the summer camp will hold its main event in Guangdong from 4 to 6 July, with more activities set to unfold across 30 provincial-level regions. In an address delivered when the camp opened, ACFTC President Zheng Jianmin said that the participation of many of Taiwan's young people has fully demonstrated the shared aspiration for increased exchanges and closer bonds between compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
July 26 Kinmen-Xiamen swim still under MAC review Focus Taiwan Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said 3 July that it is conducting "a more cautious review" of this year's Kinmen-Xiamen Strait Crossing Swim, following a report that the annual event, co-organized by local governments in Taiwan and China, could be canceled for the first time. "The nature of this event is not something I would describe as purely a sporting activity," MAC deputy head and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh told a news briefing in Taipei on 3 July. The 7-kilometer swim, which draws more than a hundred swimmers from China and Taiwan each year, has essentially been used by the Xiamen city government -- and even the Fujian provincial authorities -- as "a united front effort targeting Kinmen," Liang said.
Mainland establishes “Cross-Strait Compatriots Research Institute for Strengthening the Consciousness of the Chinese National Community” [兩岸同胞鑄牢中華民族共同體意識研究院] Central News Agency Minnan Normal University in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province, has recently established the “Research Institute for Strengthening the Consciousness of the Chinese National Community Among Cross-Strait Compatriots,” which it claims is the first Taiwan-focused research platform in China dedicated to this theme. According to reports from China News Service and information published on Minnan Normal University’s official website, the second Zhangzhou Forum on “National Reunification and the Construction of a Shared Chinese National Identity Among Cross-Strait Compatriots” was held on 1 July over a two-day period.
Espionage
Taiwan reckons with alleged Chinese spying close to halls of power Nikkei Asia Accusations of espionage and infiltration have swept Taiwan in recent months, reminiscent of the Cold War. Officials and aides associated with the presidential palace, the defense and foreign affairs ministries, the legislature and the armed forces have been arrested. Suspects include those linked to Lai's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), as well as the opposition Kuomintang … "These are not isolated incidents. They point to a coordinated and intensified effort by the [Chinese Communist Party] to infiltrate and destabilize Taiwan's democratic system from within," [DPP lawmaker Chen Kuan-ting, who sits on parliament's national defense committee] told Nikkei Asia.
Narrative & information warfare
Bellicose language about Taiwan
'Taiwan independence' separatism is greatest disaster to island, says mainland spokesperson on Lai's latest remarks on cross-Straits ties Global Times In response to remarks on cross-Straits relations in Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te's fourth speech in the so-called "10 lectures on unity," Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said in a statement on Wednesday that Lai's speech once again exposed his sinister intent to rely on foreign forces to seek "Taiwan independence" and use military means to pursue independence … Chen said that Lai is stubborn on the path of selling Taiwan and destroying Taiwan, and he is a peace destroyer, a thorough war monger, and a notorious troublemaker.
Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace
Xiamen-Kinmen Strait Crossing Activities “Stopped”? The Democratic Progressive Party once again extends its political black hand to cross-strait exchanges China Taiwan Network The Xiamen-Kinmen Strait Crossing event, originally scheduled for the 26th of this month, was abruptly halted by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which claimed the event carried “united front” overtones … In response, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office accused the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities of obstructing long-standing cross-strait tourism exchanges and mischaracterising normal interactions as attempts at “united front” infiltration. The spokesperson further alleged that the DPP’s actions reflect a deliberate attempt to provoke, disrupt, and undermine cross-strait cooperation, driven by their pursuit of “Taiwan independence.” The statement claimed that the DPP fears greater people-to-people ties across the Strait could undermine its separatist agenda.
Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration
Lai Ching-te's 'lectures' are disrupting, harming Taiwan: mainland experts CCTV English Several leading experts on the Taiwan question have criticized Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te's "10 lectures on unity," debunking his remarks that aim to disrupt and jeopardize Taiwan … Such provocative separatist remarks will only end up harming Taiwan by intensifying social confrontation across the region and escalating tension across the Taiwan Strait, according to experts … The so-called "10 lectures on unity," which are untenable from both legal and historical bases and have nothing to do with reality or common sense, are doomed to be abandoned as "text junk," experts have said.
Cyber warfare
Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s military or defence industry
Group urges US to boost Taiwan cyberdefense ties Taipei Times The US should cooperate with Taiwan to bolster defenses against cyberattacks amid a growing threat from China, the Washington-based Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank said in a report published on 24 June. China has significantly ramped up its cyberoffensives in the past few years, a trend being exacerbated by the rapid development of artificial intelligence, which could “further tilt the balance toward offense in cyberspace in unpredictable and potentially dangerous ways,” said the report, titled: “Cyber Crossroads in the Indo-Pacific: Navigating Digital Potential and Cyber Peril.”
Excessive Taiwanese data collection and privacy infringement
Chinese apps such as TikTok and RedNote fail Taiwan security tests Taiwan News The National Security Bureau on 2 July warned that Chinese social media mobile apps such as TikTok, WeChat, RedNote, and Weibo pose significant cybersecurity risks, including the potential collection and cataloging of facial biometrics. The NSB said it tested five Chinese apps popular in Taiwan and found all exhibited "excessive data collection" and "privacy infringement," per CNA. Chinese social networking and e-commerce platform RedNote was found to be the worst offender.
Diplomatic coercion
Challenging other countries’ One-China policies
Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan: UK ex-defense chief Nikkei Asia Western nations show too much "timidity" to work with Taiwan in the face of China's pressure, a former U.K. defense secretary said in an interview with Nikkei Asia. Gavin Williamson, a member of Parliament who served in senior positions in successive Conservative governments, said countries should recognize that Taiwan is "a proud, sovereign nation-state" and do more to help it counter military threats and "gray zone" pressure from China, which claims Taiwan as its territory.
Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle
China urges U.S. to stop advancing so-called Taiwan-related act Xinhua China urges the United States to abide by the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués, and stop advancing the so-called Taiwan-related act, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on 3 July. Spokesperson Mao Ning made the remarks at a regular press briefing when asked to comment on the adoption of the so-called "Taiwan Non-Discrimination Act" by the US House of Representatives, requiring the US government to support China's Taiwan region in joining the International Monetary Fund. Mao stressed that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. Taiwan has no basis, reason or right to participate in the United Nations or other international organizations, whose membership is confined to sovereign states, Mao noted.
Wang Yi meets with French Foreign Minister, says he believes France will uphold the One China principle [王毅與法外交部長會談 稱相信法方恪守一個中國原則] Central News Agency Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot in Paris on 4 July local time. During the meeting, Wang expressed confidence that France would continue to uphold the One China principle and safeguard the political foundation of bilateral relations. According to a statement released by the Chinese side, Barrot affirmed that the French government adheres to the One China policy and that there has been no change in its position.
Lawfare
No incidents to report this week.
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