China shows force as Lai adopts tougher stance
Plus: Japan blocked ex-Taiwan leader Tsai's 2024 visit over China concerns
Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s State of the Strait Weekly Digest.
Each week ASPI's China team tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, interference and espionage, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and lawfare.
Analysis and commentary from the team is in ‘block quotes’ (the orange margins on the left). Please feel free to cite this newsletter as: State of the Strait #2, ASPI, 25 March 2025.
This edition covers the period: 18 March 2025 to 25 March 2025.
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This week's biggest news:
On 17 March, China launched its first major military exercises of 2025 around Taiwan—widely interpreted as a direct response to President Lai Ching-te’s blunt 13 March speech, in which he labelled China a “foreign hostile force.”
Lai has pledged a tougher posture against China’s growing coercion and infiltration of government, military and society. He has proposed reviving peacetime military court and increasing financial support for Taiwan’s armed forces to focus on technological and asymmetric warfare.
On the horizon:
27 March: ‘All-Society Defense Resilience’ Committee Field Exercise in Tainan, Taiwan
Following on from the tabletop exercise last December, Taiwan’s ‘Whole Society Defense Resilience Committee’ will participate in disaster exercises in Tainan, including earthquakes, tsunamis, and destruction of critical infrastructure scenarios. Office of the President
15-17 June: The G7 Leaders’ Summit in Alberta, Canada
9-18 July: Taiwan's ‘Han Kuang’ Military Exercises
By the numbers: This week’s incidents of coercion
Below are the incidents of coercion for the period: 18 March 2025 to 25 March 2025.
7 – Military & paramilitary coercion
0 – Economic coercion
2 – Interference & espionage
5 – Narrative & information warfare
1 – Cyber warfare
3 – Diplomatic coercion
2 – Lawfare
TOTAL: 20 incidents for this period
Military & paramilitary coercion
PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).
China holds drills near Taiwan after Lai's 'foreign hostile force' remark
Nikkei Asia
China launched military drills near Taiwan on 17 March, the self-ruled island's Ministry of National Defense announced on 18 March, days after its president in Taipei referred to Beijing as a “foreign hostile force” and vowed to counter its attempts at infiltration … In response, the ministry said it scrambled combat air and sea patrols and deployed defense missile systems to track the Chinese military aircraft.
PLA cautions Taiwan against crossing red line. China Daily
Latest military threats show China a 'troublemaker': Taiwan officials. Focus Taiwan
Taiwan F-16 fighter jet puts Chinese military drone in gunsight
Newsweek
Photos show the Taiwanese military tracked two Chinese military drones approaching the island's sovereign airspace. They were monitored by an F-16V fighter jet and a P-3C maritime surveillance aircraft. Both nations' navies encountered each other at sea as well. The Japanese Defense Ministry confirmed that two Chinese drones were detected flying between Taiwan and Japan's westernmost island of Yonaguni on 17 March. The 67-mile-wide waterway between the two islands has frequently seen activity by the Chinese military.
Taiwan condemns China coast guard activities around Dongsha
Focus Taiwan
Taiwanese authorities on 21 March condemned the recent increase in Chinese coast guard-escorted fishing vessels operating illegally in waters around Taiwan-controlled Dongsha Islands in the South China Sea. In a news release, Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration said unusually large groupings of Chinese fishing vessels began to appear around Dongsha on Feb. 15, when at least six motherships and 29 smaller boats were sighted.
Only by recognizing the threat of China's “gray zone” can we seek peace [認清中國「灰色地帶」威脅，才能求和平]. Commonwealth Magazine
‘No name, no home port, no cert’: Taiwan seizes unregistered Chinese refuelling boat
The Strait Times
Taiwan said it had detained a Chinese boat suspected of illegally supplying fuel to fishing boats trespassing in Taiwanese waters on 23 March, the coast guard said. The incident happened off the north-west coast near the cities of Taoyuan and Hsinchu, south of the capital Taipei, the coast guard said. The boat ignored repeated warnings and “zigzagged to flee before it was brought under control” … The boat was escorted back to port near Taipei, and the crew members were taken in for questioning.
Suspected unregistered Chinese speedboat reportedly crossed the border, Penghu marine patrol finds no abnormalities [疑似無船籍中國快艇傳越界 澎湖海巡查無異狀]
Central News Agency
There were reports that a suspected unregistered Chinese speedboat had crossed the border in the waters southwest of Penghu Huayu Island and stole longline fishing catches and nets. Upon receiving the report, the Penghu Coast Guard boat went out to sea to investigate and used radar to expand the search, but no trace of the suspicious speedboat was found.
PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities
China demonstrated ‘satellite dogfighting,’ Space Force general says
DefenseNews
A top Space Force general said 18 March that commercial systems have observed Chinese satellites rehearsing “dogfighting” maneuvers in low Earth orbit — the US adversary’s latest show of tactical and technological advancement in space capabilities … A service spokesperson later elaborated on the general’s comments, saying the operation occurred in 2024 and involved three Shiyan-24C experimental satellites and two other Chinese experimental spacecraft, the Shijian-605 A and B. The Shijian-6 systems are believed to have a signals intelligence mission.
China unveils a powerful deep-sea cable cutter that could reset the world order
SCMP
A compact, deep-sea, cable-cutting device, capable of severing the world’s most fortified underwater communication or power lines, has been unveiled by China – and it could shake up global maritime power dynamics … The tool, which is able to cut lines at depths of up to 4,000 metres (13,123 feet) – twice the maximum operational range of existing subsea communication infrastructure – has been designed specifically for integration with China’s advanced crewed and uncrewed submersibles like the Fendouzhe, or Striver, and the Haidou series.
Economic coercion
No reports this week.
Interference & espionage
United front work targeting Taiwan
ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.
ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.
Symposiums marking the 20th anniversary of the implementation of the Anti-Secession Law were held in many countries [《反分裂国家法》实施20周年座谈会在多国举办]
Xinhua
According to Xinhua News Agency's foreign correspondents, seminars marking the 20th anniversary of the implementation of China’s ‘Anti-Secession Law’ have been held in many countries. Overseas Chinese attending the seminars expressed their opposition to any form of “Taiwan independence” secessionist activities, and expressed their firm confidence in promoting the development of cross-strait relations and promoting the reunification of the motherland.
Espionage
Prosecutors question NDU professor over alleged fraud, China links
Focus Taiwan
The Taoyuan District Prosecutors Office took Ke Ming-te, a professor at National Defense University (NDU), in for questioning on 19 March over suspected fraud and potentially illegal links to China. The prosecutors also brought nine other individuals in for questioning, either as suspects or witnesses, in connection with the investigation after conducting searches at Ke's residence and NDU's Chung Cheng Institute of Technology.
China engaging in covert operations to undermine Taiwanese society
Taiwan News
China conducts wide-ranging covert operations against Taiwan to undermine Taiwanese society and ultimately annex the country, the US-based think tank Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) said in a recent report. GTI said the CCP’s operations fall into three main categories: intelligence, cyberspace, and United Front work.
Chinese Communist Party covert operations against Taiwan. Global Taiwan Institute
US think tank says Taiwan faces secret political warfare from the Chinese Communist Party, recommends heavier penalties for espionage [美智庫指台灣面臨中共秘密政治戰 建議加重間諜刑罰]. Central News Agency
Narrative & information warfare
Promoting the term “Green Terror 绿色恐怖”
ASPI Comment: Beijing is increasingly employing the derogatory term “Green Terror 绿色恐怖” to criticise the administration and policies of Taiwan's pan-Green coalition, led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which currently holds Taiwan’s presidency. While the DPP's official colour is green, Beijing's deliberate use of “terror 恐怖” invokes a provocative comparison with Taiwan's historical “White Terror 白色恐怖,” a period of oppressive martial law imposed by the Kuomintang from 1949 to 1987.
With the phrase “Taiwan is China's Taiwan”, the DPP wants to separate ordinary people from their families [一句“台湾是中国的台湾”，民进党就要普通民众骨肉分离]
China News Network [中国新闻网]
Recently, a mainland spouse was reported for posting remarks such as “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China” on a social platform and was forced to leave Taiwan … Since the DPP authorities recently put forward the so-called “17 strategies” to restrict cross-strait exchanges, the “green terror” atmosphere on the island has been spreading day by day. From public officials to entertainers, from businessmen to ordinary people, everyone is facing escalating political pressure.
Misrepresenting UN General Assembly Resolution 2758
Minister thanks Belgium for pro-Taiwan resolution
Taiwan Times
Taiwan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung on 21 March thanked the Belgian Chamber of Representatives for unanimously passing a resolution condemning Chinese military activity and reiterating that UN Resolution 2758 does not take a position on Taiwan … It also calls on the Belgian government to urge Beijing to cease escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and to resist China’s distortion of Resolution 2758 to exclude Taiwan from international affairs.
MOFA sincerely thanks Belgian Chamber of Representatives for adopting resolution backing Taiwan and highlighting fact that UNGA Resolution 2758 takes no position on Taiwan. Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Taiwan)
Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace
Arizona governor's visit fuels fear, anger concerning industrial hollowing-out of Taiwan
China Daily
The visit by Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs to China's Taiwan region last week has reignited concerns about the outflow of investments and supply chain resources from TSMC to the United States. Lai is selling TSMC and Taiwan's semiconductor industry to Washington in the hope of gaining US support for his separatist agenda seeking "Taiwan independence" and repeated provocations to the mainland, said Chen Guiqing, a research fellow of the Beijing-based Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Taiwan: Chess player or chess piece?
Xinhua
The vast military procurement can't hide the ugly reality of the Democratic Progressive Party authorities "relying on foreign forces to seek independence," nor the fate of a manipulated “chess piece” … Anyone who attempts to split the country will be punished by law, spurned by the people and judged by history. Only by realizing China's complete reunification can there be permanent peace across the Taiwan Strait. Only by then, can the Taiwan region override the fate of being an abandoned “chess piece” of foreign forces.
Cyber warfare
Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure
Taiwan critical infrastructure targeted by hackers with possible ties to Volt Typhoon
The Record - Recorded Future News
Hackers with apparent ties to several China-based groups like Volt Typhoon are targeting critical infrastructure in Taiwan as part of an ongoing campaign. Researchers at Cisco Talos discovered a malicious campaign that has been active since at least 2023 attempting to establish long-term access to critical infrastructure in Taiwan and steal information … “We have primarily observed targeting of entities in Taiwan by UAT-5918 in industry verticals such as telecommunications, healthcare, information technology, and other critical infrastructure sectors,” the researchers said.
Diplomatic coercion
Challenging other countries’ One-China policies
Japan blocked ex-Taiwan leader Tsai's 2024 visit over China concerns
The Mainichi
The Japanese government did not approve a visit by former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen last July to attend a memorial service for former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe due to concerns over a backlash from China, sources familiar with the matter said 20 March. The Japanese government, at the time led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, was working to lift China's ban on imports of Japanese seafood, imposed in the wake of the release into the sea of treated wastewater from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and did not want to add to tensions, they said.
Beijing protests over former Japanese military chief’s Taiwan adviser role
SCMP
Beijing has protested to Tokyo over the appointment of a former Japanese military chief as an adviser to the Taiwanese government. Taiwanese media reported on 21 March that Shigeru Iwasaki, former chief of the Joint Staff of the Japan Self-Defence Forces and a four-star air force general, had been confirmed as an honorary adviser to the Executive Yuan, the Taiwanese government’s highest administrative body.
China solemnly urges Japan to be cautious in words and deeds on the Taiwan issue [外交部：中方严肃敦促日方在台湾问题上谨言慎行].
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said on the 17 March that Japan's attempt to blur historical facts on the Taiwan issue seriously misleads the Japanese people, seriously violates the Japanese government's commitment to adhere to the one-China principle, challenges the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, and sends a seriously wrong signal to the "Taiwan independence" forces. China firmly opposes this.
Japan should honor its legal obligations on Taiwan. China Daily
ASPI Comment: According to the 1972 China-Japan Joint Communique, China reiterated that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People's Republic of China”, while Japan only “fully understands and respects this stand”. Japan does not recognise Taiwan as part of PRC territory.
Lawfare
Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China
Another citizen detained in China: Mainland Affairs Council. No further explanation out of respect for the families [再有民眾在陸被拘留 陸委會：尊重家屬不多說明]
Central News Agency
The Mainland Affairs Council said 18 March that a father and son were detained in China … It is reported that the two were detained in Wuhan and their family recently sought help from relevant government agencies … Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation said that it once again called on China to immediately report any situation in which the personal freedom of Taiwanese people has been restricted due to cases through the cross-strait joint anti-crime and judicial assistance agreement.
Regulatory changes to incentivise cross-strait integration on Beijing’s terms
China introduces new measures to facilitate travel, residency for HK, Macao, Taiwan residents on mainland
Xinhua
Under the new policy, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents who lose, damage, or forget to carry their travel permits can apply for a temporary electronic permit valid for seven days, allowing them to board flights and trains within mainland cities, the National Immigration Administration said.
Poor ASPI - lost its U.S. funding! 😂😂😂