Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s State of the Strait Weekly Digest. Read more about this new project here.
Each week ASPI's China team tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, interference and espionage, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and lawfare.
Governments and organisations can contact ctspartnerships@aspi.org.au to discuss co-funding this project and gaining access to the entire State of the Strait database.
Analysis and commentary from the team is in ‘block quotes’ (the blue margins on the left). Please feel free to cite this newsletter as: State of the Strait #16, ASPI, 2 July 2025.
This edition covers the period: 24 June 2025 to 2 July 2025.
Taiwan’s Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim has said she will not be intimidated after Czech intelligence revealed a foiled plot by Chinese officials to stage a car crash targeting her motorcade during her visit to Prague in March 2024.
According to Czech military intelligence, diplomats and intelligence officers at the Chinese embassy in Prague had planned a “demonstrative kinetic action” against Hsiao—a staged collision designed to send a message, disrupt her visit, and potentially endanger her safety. The alleged plot was still in the preparatory stage and was ultimately not carried out. However, a Chinese diplomat was reportedly seen running a red light while tailing Hsiao’s convoy, which sparked concerns and led to the uncovering of the broader scheme.
Hsiao responded defiantly, thanking Czech officials for their protection and declaring that such threats would not stop her from continuing to represent Taiwan abroad. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council demanded a public apology from Beijing and labelled the alleged operation a serious violation of international norms and a threat to democratic representatives.
Beijing has denied any involvement. A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry claimed that its diplomats operate within the law and accused Czechia of interfering in China’s internal affairs by hosting Hsiao. No other governments have yet publicly commented on the alleged Chinese plot.
The alleged plot in Prague signals a troubling escalation in the conduct of a Chinese diplomatic post, crossing the line between legitimate statecraft and coercive interference. This should prompt urgent scrutiny of the role Chinese embassies may play in political disruption and intimidation abroad. As more governments deepen their engagement with Taipei and Taiwanese officials, they may face growing pressure from Beijing—not just in public forums, but through covert actions that test the limits of international norms.
On the horizon:
9-18 July: Taiwan's ‘Han Kuang’ Military Exercises
Below are the incidents of coercion for the period: 24 June 2025 to 2 July 2025.
Military & paramilitary coercion
PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities
U.S. military warns of China's missile threat to Taiwan Focus Taiwan United States military officials on 26 June warned of China's expanding missile capabilities and its development of a “kill web” and indicated that Taiwan and the region were well within the missiles' ranges. In a statement to Congress, senior U.S. Air Force and Space Force officials said the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed more than 900 short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Taiwan and 400 ground-launched cruise missiles that can reach targets across the entire first island chain.
Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).
Taiwan to put anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer, steel Taipei Times The Ministry of Finance yesterday said that it would slap anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made beer and hot-rolled steel for four months from Thursday next week, claiming “substantial damage” to Taiwan’s industry. The finance ministry in a statement said that it and the Ministry of Economic Affairs “have preliminarily determined that there is dumping [of these products] and it has caused substantial damage to domestic industry.” The finance ministry said that the duties would be imposed for four months to “prevent our industry from continuing to suffer damage during the investigation.”
ASPI Comment: For more on how China weaponises its economic relationship with Taiwan as part of its campaign of coerion, see ‘Beijing’s economic playbook for Taiwan: big carrots and small sticks’ in The Strategisthere.
Interference & espionage
United front work targeting Taiwan
ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.
ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.
Ma Ying-jeou and delegation of Taiwan youth visit Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center Xinhua Ma Ying-jeou, former chairman of the Chinese Kuomintang party, and members of a delegation of Taiwan youth visit the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China on June 24, 2025. Ma led a delegation of Taiwan youth on a visit to the launch center on 24 June.
‘Aren’t you worried you are being brainwashed?’ The junket that left Richard’s friends on edge The Sydney Morning Herald As part of an eight-day tour to Xinjiang, Huang and about 30 other Taiwanese students and graduates were put up in 4-star hotels and treated to nightly banquets. By day, their itinerary included visits to museums and cultural activities, such as musical performances by Uyghur groups, an ethnic Muslim minority in Xinjiang. The activities were peppered with speeches from Chinese officials about Taiwan and China being “one big family”.
ASPI Comment: For more on united front efforts targeting Taiwanese youth, see ‘China’s love-bombing of Gen Z Taiwanese has its limits’ in The Strategisthere.
Qingdao City held a special event to help Taiwanese companies "empower innovation and increase efficiency with digital intelligence" [青岛市举办助力台企“数智赋能 创新增效”专题活动] Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China To provide targeted support for the digital and intelligent transformation of Taiwan-funded enterprises and to better integrate them into the new pattern of high-quality development, the Qingdao Taiwan Affairs Office, in cooperation with the Qingdao Taiwan Business Association, held a special event on the afternoon of 20 June titled “Empowering Taiwan Enterprises through Digital Intelligence for Innovation and Efficiency.” The event was hosted and addressed by Zhao Lei, Deputy Director of the Qingdao Taiwan Affairs Office. Over 60 participants attended, including heads of district (city) Taiwan Affairs Offices, Zhang Xinzheng, President of the Qingdao Taiwan Business Association, its board members and supervisors, and representatives from various Taiwan-funded enterprises based in Qingdao.
CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics
Translation: “On 28 June, former Kuomintang (KMT) vice-presidential candidate from the last Taiwanese election, Jaw Shaw-kong, advised China’s Taiwan Affairs Office to speak less and refrain from commenting on Taiwan’s internal affairs, saying that careless remarks only help the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). When facing reporters, he suggested they should respond with: “This is an internal matter for Taiwan; we have no comment.”
Recently, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office called on the Taiwanese public not to support the mass recall campaign and voiced support for KMT legislators. In response, many DPP supporters sarcastically thanked Beijing, saying, “Thank you, Chancellor, for the arrows” — a meme implying that China's interference backfires and ends up benefiting their political opponents.”
Espionage
China ‘planned car collision’ during Taiwan vice-president’s visit to Prague The Guardian Taiwan’s vice-president has said she will not be intimidated after reports by Czech intelligence that Chinese officials planned to stage a car collision when she was in Prague last year. Hsiao Bi-khim visited the Czech Republic in March 2024, in the first overseas visit by her and Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, after winning the election in January. It was reported at the time that a Chinese diplomat had run a red light while following her car – under police escort – from the airport.
Former coast guardsman indicted for alleged espionage for China Focus Taiwan A former coast guardsman was indicted on 25 June for allegedly collecting and handing over sensitive military information to China in exchange for money over a two-year period, before resigning his post in 2024, prosecutors in Kaohsiung said. The former coast guardsman, surnamed Lee, was working at the Kaohsiung-based Southern Sector Flotilla when he was allegedly recruited by Chinese intelligence in September 2022, the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office's Kaohsiung Branch said in a statement. Through a contact known as “Tony,” Lee gathered and delivered information about Coast Guard vessels operating in waters between Taiwan and the Philippines, graphics indicating warning zones set up for missile launches and other military intelligence, the office said.
Narrative & information warfare
Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace
Beijing accuses Taiwan’s William Lai of inciting cross-strait confrontation in speech South China Morning Post Beijing has lashed out at Taiwan’s leader for calling the island a country during a speech that the mainland said contained “fabricated fallacies”. In a commentary on 24 June, People’s Daily, a mouthpiece of mainland China’s ruling Communist Party, said William Lai Ching-te’s speech to a Taiwanese branch of Rotary International on Sunday was “full of various factual errors and historical fallacies” and was highly provocative and harmful. “It was a ‘Taiwan independence’ declaration that blatantly incited cross-strait confrontation, and a hodgepodge of ‘Taiwan independence’ fallacies and heresies full of errors and omissions,” it said.
Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan
China to mark 80th anniversary of Taiwan's recovery from Japanese occupation in October China Daily China will hold a gathering around Oct 25 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Taiwan's recovery from Japanese occupation, a senior official said Tuesday, adding that overseas Chinese will also be supported in organizing relevant commemorative events. The gathering is part of a series of events to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, said Hu Heping, executive vice-minister of the Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, at a press conference.
China, Taiwan clash over history, Beijing says can't 'invade' what is already its territory Reuters China and Taiwan have clashed over their competing interpretations of history in an escalating war of words over what Beijing views as provocations from Taiwan's government, and said it is impossible to “invade” what is already Chinese land …Speaking on 25 June to European ambassadors in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said he was alarmed at Taiwan's ruling party “doing everything they can to try to move towards Taiwan independence, which is very dangerous”. Japan had “stolen” Taiwan, he said, and its return to China was agreed in the 1943 Cairo Declaration and confirmed at the 1945 Potsdam Declaration ahead of the surrender of Japan at the end of World War Two.
Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration
Mainland slams DPP for ‘selling out’ Taiwan amid US tariffs Global Times A Chinese mainland official on 25 June slammed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in Taiwan for “selling out” the island's strategic industries by “groveling” to US tariff pressures, and vowed firm measures against the DPP's recent chip export curbs targeting mainland firms to uphold orderly cross-Straits economic and trade exchanges. Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, made the remarks at a press briefing on the morning of 25 June, when asked to comment on growing concerns among various sectors in Taiwan over the US' hefty tariffs imposed on the island.
Cyber warfare
Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s military or defence industry
Taiwan’s model for digital defense of democracy goes global The Diplomat Cyberattacks against Taiwan already posed a significant problem, soaring 30-fold ahead of the 2024 election according to one estimate from Cloudflare. Add genAI to the mix, and the threat level skyrockets. A report from Taiwan’s National Security Bureau to parliament in April revealed it had detected a 60 percent spike in falsified content distributed by China using genAI’s capabilities, from 1.33 million items in 2023 to 2.16 million in 2024.
Diplomatic coercion
Challenging other countries’ One-China policies
The Ministry of National Defense Spokesperson answered reporters' questions on US arms sales to Taiwan and other issues [国防部新闻发言人就美对台军售等问题答记者问] Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China A reporter asked: According to reports, the U.S. recently invited representatives of Taiwan’s military to the U.S. to observe joint exercises involving American and allied air forces. The U.S. House Appropriations Committee also recently passed the FY2026 “Defense Appropriations Act,” which includes a US$500 million budget for aid to Taiwan. Does the spokesperson have any comment? Zhang Xiaogang stated: “We firmly oppose any form of military collusion between the U.S. and the Taiwan region of China. Whether it is military aid, arms sales, or any other pretext, the U.S. aims to bring the flames of war to Taiwan. Its intent is to ruin and harm Taiwan—an extremely malicious agenda.
Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle
China-EU relations: rare earths, Taiwan discussed in Wang Yi’s visit to Polish embassy South China Morning Post In a meeting with EU diplomatic envoys in Beijing, Wang said that China and the EU “have both the responsibility and capability to provide much-needed stability and predictability to a world fraught with turbulence”, according to a Chinese foreign ministry readout … [Wang] reiterated Beijing’s stance on the Taiwan issue, noting that “we hope the EU will continue to firmly uphold the one-China principle and oppose any form of Taiwan independence”.
Wang Yi meets with high-level EU officials at Polish embassy, Beijing
Testing Taiwan’s security partners
Japan quietly prepares for China-US conflict in Pacific, builds bomb shelters near Taiwan First Post As China’s threat over the Pacific gains momentum and with Taiwan’s independence at stake, Japan is quietly preparing itself for a possible US-China war. A key ally of Washington, Japan, will begin building bomb shelters next year on its remote islands close to Taiwan, as it fears that territories located far west could be targeted by Beijing. A report by Newsweek says the Japanese move comes as an acknowledgement of the complex reality. Japan is already hosting the most American troops anywhere in the world outside of US territory. This simply means, especially against the pattern of the recent West Asian crisis, that a US-China conflict is certainly bound to spill over.
Mainland authorities severely punish diehard 'Taiwan independence' separatists in accordance with law: MSS Global Times Chinese authorities on June 21, 2024 issued a set of judicial guidelines on imposing criminal penalties on diehard “Taiwan independence” separatists for conducting or inciting secession. Over the past year, the guidelines have provided a powerful legal tool for defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity, sending a clear and severe warning to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, and fully demonstrated the firm determination and powerful measures to safeguard national reunification in accordance with the law, the Ministry of State Security (MSS) said on 28 June.
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