Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s State of the Strait Weekly Digest. Read more about this new project here.
Each week ASPI's China team tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, interference and espionage, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and lawfare.
Governments and organisations can contact ctspartnerships@aspi.org.au to discuss co-funding this project and gaining access to the entire State of the Strait database.
Analysis and commentary from the team is in ‘block quotes’ (the blue margins on the left). Please feel free to cite this newsletter as: State of the Strait #15, ASPI, 24 June 2025.
This edition covers the period: 17 June 2025 to 24 June 2025.
On 26 July, Taiwan will hold an unprecedented wave of recall votes targeting 24 Kuomintang (KMT) legislators—an electoral gambit that could decisively reshape the nation’s political landscape. If the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) succeeds in unseating enough KMT lawmakers and secures key by-election victories, the balance of power in Taiwan’s 113-seat Legislative Yuan could flip. That would break the legislative deadlock that has stymied President Lai Ching-te’s agenda, and open the door to long-delayed progress on defence reform and national security legislation.
Current seat count in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, June 2025.Data: 立法院 | Graphic: ASPI
The threshold for recall is high: a majority of votes cast must favour removal, and turnout must exceed 25% in each district. This campaign is unfolding amid intensifying Chinese pressure—military coercion, cyber attacks, and persistent cognitive warfare. Taiwan’s domestic politics are becoming more focused on security issues as a result, with voters increasingly alert to questions of resilience, preparedness, and perceived softness toward Beijing. The DPP is hoping that public sentiment is shifting in favour of its focus on national security—and that it can translate that shift into legislative strength.
KMT Chairman Eric Chu accused the DPP of trying to “crush and eliminate the opposition” through the recall campaigns. The KMT and its allies themselves attemptedto recall several DPP legislators earlier this year, with some campaigns clearing the initial signature threshold. However, all ultimately failed to advance—either falling short of required signatures or being withdrawn.
The outcome could be transformative. A restored DPP majority would remove key legislative roadblocks, enabling the smoother passage of strategic bills and accelerating Taiwan’s defence modernisation. For supporters of President Lai’s agenda, the recall vote is about more than ousting individual lawmakers—it’s a litmus test of how Taiwanese voters want to be governed in an increasingly perilous security environment.
If the DPP regains control of the legislature, Beijing is unlikely to remain silent. A sharper backlash is almost certain: more aggressive military signalling, targeted economic retaliation, and escalated disinformation efforts aimed at undermining Taiwan’s cohesion. Chinese state media will likely portray the shift as further proof that the DPP seeks formal independence, using the outcome to justify a hardened stance.
For more on how political polarisation is affecting efforts to improve national security and defence policy, see ‘Taiwan’s polarised politics risks undermining its resilience and security’ in The Strategisthere.
On the horizon:
9-18 July: Taiwan's ‘Han Kuang’ Military Exercises
Taiwan’s Central Election Commission confirmed recall votes for 24 Kuomintang (KMT) district legislators. A recall succeeds when more than half of those voting approve the measure and turnout reaches at least 25% of eligible voters in the district.
By the numbers: This week’s incidents of coercion
Below are the incidents of coercion for the period: 17 June 2025 to 24 June 2025.
Military & paramilitary coercion
PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities
Chinese government vessels have sailed near the Diaoyutai Islands for 216 consecutive days, setting a new record [中國公務船在釣魚台連續航行216天 刷新紀錄] Central News Agency Japanese media reported that patrol vessels of Japan’s Coast Guard on 22 June spotted four China Coast Guard ships sailing in the contiguous zone just outside Japan’s territorial waters around the Diaoyutai Islands. This marks the 216th consecutive day that Chinese government vessels have been confirmed near the Diaoyutai Islands, setting a new record. According to a report by Kyodo News’ Chinese-language site, Japan’s 11th Regional Coast Guard Headquarters in Naha stated that all four Chinese vessels were equipped with autocannons.
ASPI Comment: The Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands dispute involves a group of uninhabited islets in the East China Sea claimed by Japan, China, and Taiwan. While Japan controls the islands, both China and Taiwan assert historical sovereignty. For Taiwan, the issue is significant not only due to its own territorial claim—distinct from Beijing’s—but also because of the islands’ strategic location near vital shipping routes and potential resources.
Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities
Taiwan reports China Coast Guard incursions near outlying islands Taiwan News Chinese Coast Guard vessels intruded into waters near Taiwan’s outlying islands three times over the past few days, the Taiwan Coast Guard said 22 June. Four China Coast Guard ships were spotted around Kinmen on June 19 and June 20, prompting Taiwan to dispatch patrol boats to escort them out of the area. The vessels were identified as Chinese Coast Guard ships No. 14606, No. 14609, No. 14521, and No. 14529.
PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
Japan destroyer sails Taiwan Strait after China jet encounter Kyodo News A Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait last week, days after a Chinese fighter jet flew dangerously close to a Japanese patrol plane over the Pacific, diplomatic sources said 19 June … The Japanese government has typically refrained from sending MSDF vessels through the Taiwan Strait to avoid provoking China. But it has shifted its stance amid Beijing's growing assertiveness, joining ally the United States and others in asserting freedom of navigation in what they consider international waters. The latest transit came after Japan's Defense Ministry said that a Chinese J-15 fighter jet from the aircraft carrier Shandong approached as close as 45 meters to an MSDF P-3C surveillance plane over the high seas in the Pacific on June 7 and 8.
For more on China’s use of military and paramilitary coercion to enforce Beijing's excessive territorial claims, check out ASPI research project and interactive website ‘Pressure Points’—an online resource tracking the activity and behaviour of the People's Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait and beyond.
Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).
Economic coercion
No incidents to report this week.
Interference & espionage
United front work targeting Taiwan
ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.
ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.
Friendship ignites as 11th Shanghai-Taiwan Youth Camp wraps up CGTN From Labubu to Xiaohongshu, young students from universities in Shanghai and Taiwan found many topics in common during their week-long Youth Elite Leadership Camp in Shanghai. On 20 June, 75 students gathered for the camp's closing ceremony after participating in various activities that showcased Shanghai's unique features, urban charm and traditional Chinese culture.
Taiwan holds worship ceremony for mythical ancestor Fuxi Xinhua Hundreds of people attended a ceremony to worship Fuxi, the mythical ancestor of the Chinese nation, in New Taipei City in Taiwan on 21 June. The event took place at the same time as a similar ceremony held in Tianshui in northwestern Gansu Province, where Fuxi is believed to have been born … Wang Jin-pyng, chief ceremony officiant and former leader of Taiwan's legislature, expressed hope that the ritual would help promote the spirit of Fuxi in Taiwan -- fostering cultural confidence and a sense of national identity.
ASPI Comment: China’s invocation of Fuxi, the mythical ancestor of the Chinese nation is a classic United Front tactic aimed at fostering a pan-Chinese identity that blurs political and cultural distinctions between Taiwan and the mainland. By targeting local politicians, temple networks, and influencers with subsidised trips and messaging directives, Beijing embeds pro-unification sentiment at the grassroots. While cloaked in cultural heritage, the Fuxi rites are state-directed political theatre—designed to normalise the idea that Taiwan’s past, and future, belong to a single Chinese nation.
Ma Ying-jeou and his delegation visited Ningde [马英九一行在宁德参访] Xinhua Former Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou led a group of Taiwanese youth on a visit to Ningde, Fujian on the 17 June … Song Tao, director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, met with Ma Ying-jeou and his delegation in Ningde that evening … [Song Tao said that] the compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are all Chinese and one family.
Narrative & information warfare
Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China
Taiwan launches unity drive as China threat looms Financial Times Taiwan’s president on Sunday launched a drive for national unity in the face of aggression from China, in a move intended to overcome domestic partisan battles which is likely to further raise cross-strait tensions … Lai Ching-te asserted Taiwan’s de facto independence in the first of 10 speeches planned for the coming weeks under the motto “Unite Taiwan”. He highlighted the centuries during which Taiwan was separate from China and said that because it had its own territory, people, government and sovereignty, “of course Taiwan is a sovereign state!”
Clarification on how Taiwan was described in a story from CBC News on June 16 CBC News On 16 June, we brought you a story about the Buddhist organizations on P.E.I., done by our colleagues at Radio-Canada. In that story, the reporter said Taiwan is a country that China is threatening to invade. In fact, Taiwan is a self-governing island, and there is dispute around who controls it.
ASPI Comment: This story has since been removed from the CBC website, but an archived version remains available here.The correction appears to have been prompted by pro-Beijing backlash—but that, in turn, sparked criticism from supporters of Taiwan. Caught in the crossfire, CBC ultimately chose to remove the story entirely.For the record, Canadian media—and indeed any Canadian—is free to refer to Taiwan as a “country.” In both political and geographical terms, a country is generally defined by four criteria: a permanent population, a defined territory, a functioning government, and the capacity to engage in relations with other states. Taiwan meets all of these benchmarks, regardless of whether Ottawa maintains formal diplomatic ties with Taipei. Canada’s ‘One-China’ policy is a self-imposed framework that guides official government language—it does not restrict how individuals or media outlets may describe Taiwan. Perhaps the story’s removal is, albeit belatedly, an acknowledgment of that.
Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan
Taiwan shipbuilder refutes submarine prototype hull deformation rumor Focus Taiwan Shipbuilder CSBC Corp., Taiwan has refuted a widespread internet rumor that the nation's first indigenous submarine prototype showed signs of hull deformation during initial sea trials last week. In a statement issued last week, CSBC said a protrusion on the port side of the bow of the Narwhal, or Hai Kun, housed the submarine's passive ranging sonar system, and was not a deformation as alleged by some internet users … The unnamed source said that the posts were believed to be part of the Chinese Communist Party's campaign to spread military disinformation targeting Taiwan.
Taiwan's Story: The erased pages CGTN Taiwan's past is complex and shifting, yet its bond with the mainland runs deep. As history is twisted and memory reshaped, who still stands to protect our shared roots and values? Tune in to uncover the truth and trace the roots.
ASPI Comment: Framed as a cultural documentary, “Taiwan’s Story – The Erased Pages” pushes the idea that Taiwan’s true history and identity are intrinsically Chinese, while ignoring Taiwan’s democratic evolution, indigenous voices, and complex colonial past. By portraying efforts to build a distinct Taiwanese identity as historical erasure, it reframes unification as cultural restoration. Produced by CGTN, a state-controlled outlet, the video is part of a broader cognitive warfare strategy to shape perceptions and weaken support for Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Cyber warfare
Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure
China increases cyber attacks on hospitals to ‘humiliate’ Taiwan The Telegraph Since February, Taiwan has experienced an increase in the number of cyber attacks against hospitals, along with local government and tax offices, with the majority coming from China … Over the last three years, Taiwan has made significant strides in developing mechanisms to protect itself against Chinese grey-zone attacks, but many vulnerabilities remain, especially in cyber space. “They have no capability to attack our defence department website or foreign affairs website or the Ministry of Digital Affairs website,” said Herming Chiueh, the country’s deputy minister of digital affairs. “So they need to shift their attack to our weak part, which are hospitals,” he said during an interview in June.
Diplomatic coercion
Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle
MOFA condemns Central Asia-China joint accord's false Taiwan claim Focus Taiwan The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) in Taipei condemned the inclusion of a false claim of Taiwan being a part of China in a joint declaration adopted by Beijing and five of its allies in Central Asia during a recent summit, according to a statement 19 June. The foreign ministry strongly condemns Chinese President Xi Jinping's outrageous remarks claiming Taiwan is an inseparable part of China during his attendance at the second Central Asia-China Summit held in Astana, Kazakhstan, from 16 to 18 June.
Testing Taiwan’s security partners
UK warship's passage through Taiwan Straits monitored by PLA CGTN The Chinese military said it tracked and monitored a UK naval vessel sailing through the Taiwan Straits and maintained vigilance throughout the process. The UK's offshore patrol vessel HMS Spey passed through the Taiwan Straits on Wednesday, claiming the move complied with international law. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) monitored the UK warship throughout its passage and handled the situation effectively, said Senior Colonel Liu Runke, a spokesperson for the PLA Eastern Theater Command Navy, on 20 June. Such action deliberately undermines the peace and stability of the Taiwan Straits, Liu said.
Taiwanese rethink China travel as Beijing raises stakes for 'separatist' speech The Christian Science Monitor In recent years, the Chinese government has dramatically broadened its definition of what constitutes “Taiwan independence” activities … This wide net covers a vast array of political, economic, and cultural expression. Last year, Beijing also issued new punishment guidelines under China’s 2005 anti-secession law, allowing the death penalty for “Taiwan independence” activists … Rising safety risks have contributed to a steady reduction in the number of Taiwanese working in China in recent years, a trend also driven by trade tensions, the pandemic, and the slowing Chinese economy. Trips by Taiwan citizens to mainland China have plateaued at around 200,000 per month, well below the 2019 pre-pandemic level, and have trended downward in the past year.
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The KMT is dealing with the recall of several legislators and multiple investigations into its party branches over forged signatures, which may open the door for the TPP to gain ground as a pan-blue alternative.
The KMT is dealing with the recall of several legislators and multiple investigations into its party branches over forged signatures, which may open the door for the TPP to gain ground as a pan-blue alternative.